{"id":86313,"date":"2024-09-19T19:05:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-19T23:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insideclimatenews.org\/?p=86313"},"modified":"2024-09-20T11:27:22","modified_gmt":"2024-09-20T15:27:22","slug":"grim-outlook-for-thwaites-glacier","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insideclimatenews.org\/news\/19092024\/grim-outlook-for-thwaites-glacier\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Grim Outlook\u2019 for Thwaites Glacier"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u200b\u200bAfter six years of probing, poking and sampling a Florida-sized chunk of ice in West Antarctica with submarines, satellites and drills, scientists with the <a href=\"https:\/\/thwaitesglacier.org\/\">International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration<\/a> said Thursday that a worst-case meltdown scenario still can\u2019t be ruled out, since emissions of climate-heating greenhouse gases continue to set new records each year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Combined with meltwater from ice in other parts of Antarctica and Greenland as well as from mountain glaciers around the world, and the thermal expansion of warming oceans, a Thwaites Glacier meltdown could spur sea level to rise six feet higher than today by 2100, the researchers said.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Many coastal communities would not be able to adapt to that much sea level rise in that time span, and it\u2019s likely that millions of people would be displaced, as extreme coastal flooding devastated low-lying cities, residential neighborhoods, croplands and natural ecosystems. That increase in water levels would swallow some small islands entirely in the span of just a few decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"mc_embed_signup_66f766318982c\" class=\"icn-newsletter-block icn-block alignwide with-icons hide-email-field\">\n\t<form action=\"https:\/\/insideclimatenews.us2.list-manage.com\/subscribe\/post?u=7c733794100bcc7e083a163f0&amp;id=29c928ffb5\" method=\"post\" id=\"mc-embedded-subscribe-form\" name=\"mc-embedded-subscribe-form\" class=\"validate\" target=\"_blank\" novalidate>\n\t\t<div id=\"mc_embed_signup_scroll_66f766318982c\">\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"block-title\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/insideclimatenews.org\/newsletter\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tNewsletters\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"description\">We deliver climate news to your inbox like nobody else. 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It is also a keystone holding back the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, much of which sits on a bed below sea level, that would raise oceans by about 11 feet if it all reached the sea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The glacier has been retreating for 80 years, a process that accelerated significantly in the last three decades and will speed up even more in the years ahead, the researchers said during the release of a science briefing of key results from studies done by hundreds of researchers working on different parts of the glacier and in the adjacent ocean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The international collaboration was led by the British Antarctic Survey and the United States\u2019 National Science Foundation, and included scientists and research instruments and equipment from several other countries, including Germany and South Korea.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cOur findings indicate Thwaites is set to retreat further and faster,\u201d said Rob Larter, a coordinator of the research team and a marine geophysicist with the British Antarctic Survey. Some of the team\u2019s studies of the past few years showed new vulnerabilities that could speed up the glacier\u2019s retreat sooner than expected, he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-style-multiply\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"717\" src=\"https:\/\/insideclimatenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/ThwaitesGlacierAntarctica700px.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-86314\" srcset=\"https:\/\/insideclimatenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/ThwaitesGlacierAntarctica700px.png 700w, https:\/\/insideclimatenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/ThwaitesGlacierAntarctica700px-293x300.png 293w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, the science briefing suggests that a complete collapse of the Thwaites Glacier in this century may be a bit less likely than previously thought, but that the latest models predict accelerating ice loss through the 2100s and 2200s, potentially leading to a \u201cgeneral collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the 23rd century.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some of the data was collected by remote-controlled submarines, and shows how tides can drive pulses of water beneath the glacier to cause more melting. Other scientists studied surface melting, and how pooling water and more rainfall can weaken the ice from above. In some scenarios, towering ice cliffs could collapse like rows of dominoes, disintegrating city-size areas of ice in sudden bursts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The scientists also noted that the Thwaites Glacier\u2019s floating extension\u2014its ice shelf\u2014is on the verge of breaking up completely. That wouldn\u2019t directly accelerate sea level rise significantly, they said, because that ice is already in the ocean, but it\u2019s uncertain how the glacial front at the edge of the sea will react when the floating ice shelf is gone.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Irreversible Changes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s really concerning that the latest models are all kind of pointing toward irreversible retreat having been triggered already,\u201d said University of Cambridge climate researcher <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/JD_Kirkham\">James Kirkham<\/a>, the chief science advisor to the <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ICCInet\">International Cryosphere Climate Initiative<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Already, the rate of sea level rise is overwhelming coastal ecosystems like mangroves and wetlands that help buffer storm-driven surges of water, he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI was in Houston earlier this year, and because a lot of that land is subsiding, you\u2019ve got rates of sea level rise which are about eight millimeters a year,\u201d he said, adding that coastal ecosystems like marshes can\u2019t keep up with that rate of change. Climate experts in the area say those ecosystems are drowning, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As soon as that happens, he added, \u201cThey\u2019re going to lose very large areas of wetlands, and you\u2019ll start losing those very quickly, probably on a timescale of decades, rather than the long term.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video alignwide\"><video autoplay loop muted src=\"https:\/\/cdn.insideclimatenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/19185023\/ais_with_vel_i_200204-202311_2160p25.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A NASA animation shows a sharp drop in West Antarctica ice mass between 2002 and 2023, one of the main reasons scientists have focused on closely studying Thwaites Glacier, which is a keystone to the much larger West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Credit: NASA and JPL\/Caltech<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The root of the problem is that \u201c8 billion badly behaving apes\u201d are ravaging the planet, said <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bas.ac.uk\/profile\/daho\/\">Dominic Hodgson<\/a>, the acting science director of the British Antarctic Survey.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe form tribes, and we do a lot of fighting,\u201d he said. \u201cWe also go around burning things. First it was dung, then it was the trees, then we moved on to oil and gas. We keep destroying our planet. This burning of biomass and fossil fuels has resulted in carbon dioxide concentrations in our atmosphere that are more than 1.5 times what they should be \u2026 so we\u2019ve kicked our planet way out of its natural balance.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hodgson said the Thwaites collaboration was part of the science community\u2019s overall \u201cgrand challenge\u201d of determining \u201chow much and how fast this sea level rise will be, where it will come from and where the impacts will be felt.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He said geological records show that sea level doesn\u2019t always rise steadily, but instead, \u201ccomes in jumps, and these jumps can be quite severe, several meters in the course of a few hundred years.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recent studies off the shore of West Antarctica have reinforced the idea that there have been phases of rapid melting in past geologic eras of rapid warming. Detailed mapping of the seafloor shows patterns of ridging that <a href=\"https:\/\/insideclimatenews.org\/news\/05042023\/ice-sheet-retreat-climate-change\/\">suggest<\/a> ice shelf retreat of more than 1 mile per year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The $50 million research effort may not have answered all the important questions about West Antarctica\u2019s ice, but there were some true eureka moments, said glaciologist <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/kriverman\">Kiya Riverman<\/a>, an assistant professor of environmental studies at the University of Portland, who operated a robotic submarine that for the first time directly observed the grounding line of the Thwaites Glacier\u2019s floating ice shelf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The grounding line is where the bottom of an ice shelf extending into the ocean is anchored to a ridge on the seafloor, which prevents the shelf from retreating. But those grounding lines are very vulnerable to warming ocean water and shifting currents, and being able to see exactly what is going on there will help refine sea level rise projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cFor glaciologists, I think this had the emotional impact that perhaps the moon landing had on the rest of society,\u201d Riverman said. \u201cWe were seeing this place for the first time.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>She said she started studying glaciers because she loved \u201cthe basic questions we were asking, and how little we knew about glaciers.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sometimes, while doing hard physical labor in the extreme weather atop the Thwaites Glacier, she thought that, \u201cfor all intents and purposes, I should have been miserable, right? But it was the time of my life,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe had American planes and British drills, Korean vessels, and German instruments and scientists from all of those places,\u201d she said. \u201cAnd so as a result, we\u2019re actually able to start answering some of those fundamental questions. And there\u2019s nothing more satisfying than that.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u200b\u200bAfter six years of probing, poking and sampling a Florida-sized chunk of ice in West Antarctica with submarines, satellites and drills, scientists with the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration said Thursday that a worst-case meltdown scenario still can\u2019t be ruled out, since emissions of climate-heating greenhouse gases continue to set new records each year. Combined with [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":86318,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"apple_news_api_created_at":"2024-09-19T23:04:46Z","apple_news_api_id":"c415f367-b19e-4074-bf9f-a1599635823c","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2024-09-20T15:27:21Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAw==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/AxBXzZ7GeQHS_n6FZljWCPA","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[2519],"tags":[3,1928,592,976,4159,3806,35,5074,5956],"local":[],"topic":[4410,2524],"profile":[2645],"class_list":["post-86313","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-science","tag-climate-change","tag-glacier","tag-glaciers","tag-ice-melt","tag-ice-sheet","tag-ice-sheets","tag-sea-level-rise","tag-thwaites","tag-thwaites-glacier","topic-antarctica","topic-arctic","profile-bob-berwyn"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.5 - 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